Monday, October 22, 2007

Thought For The Day

I wonder what would happen if Turkey invoked Article 5 of the NATO Charter?
Recommend this Post


  1. About the same thing as would happen if Greek and Turkish forces started shooting at each other again...

    Big headache.

  2. Big headache.

    Got that right.

  3. Believe it or not, the Turkish invasion of Kurdistan was something I predicted would happen, but only in the first few months of the war. Do I get to claim prescience if the prediction comes true four years too late?

  4. I think you get to claim something, James. But I'm also thoroughly unsurprised, and I don't blame the Turks, to be quite honest.

    Guerrillas were using the border to shield their attacks; Turkey is fully justified in taking action if the Kurds will not police their own.

  5. Fortunately, it looks like Turkey is using the threat of use of force to encourage a diplomatic solution. For now.

    But cross-border raids and killings of Turkish soldiers are a clear casus belli.

  6. It looks like the Turks are following a "Hot Pursuit" doctrine at the moment. Full blown invasion is not far off.

  7. And while we're in the mood for speculation, has anybody been paying attention to what Iran has to say about all this?

    They have a Kurdish minority too, and are thus quite concerned about events in Kurdistan. And they're not likely to be too happy about the prospect of Turkish troops on its northwestern borders...