Could It Be People Thought They Were Wasting Their Time?

People are lamenting, once again, a low voter turnout. For me, it is sad, but not a surprise. People a) didn't like the choices offered to them and b) thought that their vote would be wasted because our electoral system is rigged against representation by popular vote. The fact is we have a government elected with about 12% less than a majority of the popular vote. This government will behave pretty much as the last one did, by using a combination of intimidation and obstruction. The prime minister will not listen to anyone but himself, so no change there. Is it any wonder people stayed home? I am amazed anyone showed up at all.

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The Story Of Election 2008

Progressives who insist on casting their lot with the Liberals, please take note. The story of this election was the flight of Liberal voters not to the NDP, but to the Conservatives. Think about that for a while.

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As Inevitable As The Sunrise

The Star has not one, but two, editorial page exhortations for people to vote. The writers of neither piece can understand why people aren't honored go out and vote. Well, let me explain.

People might not be so thrilled in participating in an exercise where the outcome will be a government with the support of well less than 40% of the population. They, unlike the writers of the Star's editorial page, know that any system that gives us a government where 2/3 of the votes are ignored, is not democratic in any sense of that word. Perhaps those who choose not to vote are sick and tired of wasting their time participating in a process they know from the outset is rigged against them? Hectoring people about their democratic responsibilities does nothing to fix the fatal flaws in the way we choose governments. Only electoral reform, which the Toronto Star sleazily opposed in Ontario to the benefit of its political masters, can fix what ails this country. If you want people to participate in democracy, you must first give them democracy.

I have outlined the reason why I will vote and it has nothing to do with democracy. With me, it is purely a cash donation to the party of my choice. If others choose not to vote, it is because our system is a failure, not because they have no democratic impulse. The editorial writers of the Star should be ashamed to defend this farce as democratic.

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Tomorrow

No matter how tomorrow turns out, Canadians will be the losers. We will, once again, be governed by a single party with far, far less than majority support among voters. Canadians will be told to accept this as a legitimate expression of "democracy", rather than as a fluke of vote splitting, created by a deeply undemocratic voting system. Frankly, I have seriously considered not voting this time, because I don't live in a swing riding and my vote will not change the outcome of this election in any way. However, I will go out an vote, simply because to do so will help fund the party of my choice.

People who read this blog regularly, will not be surprised that I have decided to vote NDP. It does somewhat surprise me. There are things about Jack Layton that make me cringe, but given the alternative programs of the other parties, I think the NDP is the superior party to have in power during this coming economic crisis.

Harper has made it clear that he will cut government programs rather than go into deficit (which has a distinct 1930 ring to it) and Dion has made it clear that all his promises are up for grabs, except the Green Shift. I simply don't trust either of them to put the interests of middle and lower class Canadians ahead of those of their friends in the oil patch and Bay Street. So, for whatever it is worth, since as I have explained, my vote is pretty much meaningless, I will cast it for Cindy Jacobson.

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Ok, Now I Understand

Why the voices calling for strategic voting are getting so strident. Nanos knows too.

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Strategic Voting: The Rant

Paul Wells, in a comment to this posting wrote:

There’s nothing particularly wrong with Ti-Guy’s support for Greens staying Green. Nor is there nothing particularly wrong with Bridget wanting the anti-Conservative vote to rally around one flag (although it’s always, always a Liberal flag, isn’t it?). (emphasis mine)

That's my problem with calls for strategic voting. Whenever I see one of these urgent pleas to "stop Harper", there is almost never, ever, a statement that all parties are equally against the Harper agenda. No, they are almost always like this:

A vote for the Green or the NDP (most ridings in Ontario) is a vote for Harper’s policies and an endorsement of his actions over the past 2 1/2 years. Progressive Canadians should support Dion - come on people - he is probably the most left leaning Liberal leader that we have ever had! He is Liberal in name - what is a rose - would is smell as sweet by any other name???? Canadians on the centre left are too hung up on partisan politics. What about Dion the man and his platform offends the rest of the left?? We can have a greener, fairer and richer Canada. VOTE FOR CANADA - VOTE LIBERAL!!!!

Hysterical, factually incorrect and mindlessly pro-Liberal. Now that is excusable because, Bridget probably is a Liberal and is advancing what she sees as Liberal intersts, but how about Elizabeth May?

Yesterday the Star wrote this:

May made the statement yesterday after acknowledging that some Green candidates have expressed concern about vote splitting that could result in Tory victories.

"It's up to our local candidates to decide in a close riding whether they feel their participation is likely to elect a Conservative or not. I'm not weighing in on that. But in the vast, vast majority of ridings in this country, voting Green is clearly the right thing to do," she said in an interview last night.

May acknowledged that her refusal to call on all Canadians to vote Green has caused her grief in the party. But May said she has always made clear she puts principle before partisanship, and that a Liberal government would be better for the environment than a Tory one.

Again, given the record of the past Liberal government, this is factually incorrect. But May, the leader of a supposedly separate party, makes the claim anyway. And why does she not also endorse the NDP, for example, if she is going to throw her support somewhere? Isn't the NDP a pro-green party,in the broad sense? It would make sense, west of the lakehead, to endorse the NDP, but she doesn't. Why? Because May's intention and those of her ilk, is not to stop Harper, but elect Liberals, which are two entirely different agendas. They are trying to do covertly and with fear, what the Liberal Party cannot do with its own program and leadership -- get people to vote Liberal. It is sneaky and dishonest, and doesn't address our real problem.

Our real problem is not that people are voting "the wrong way". Our problem is that we have an electoral system that is so screwed up that people's voting intentions are totally lost in vote splitting. Let's fix the real problem and let "solutions" like strategic voting die an unlamented death.

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Good Ad To Finish A Well Run Campaign

It is simple and it puts its point across graphically.

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Mr. Emerson, Your Senate Seat Is Waiting

From today's Globe and Mail:

On Friday, Mr. Harper would not rule out appointing an unelected person into his cabinet.

The writer of the article thinks it's about Quebec, but I think it all about getting the only half-sentient cabinet minister Harper had, back in cabinet. Just because a guy is two-faced and can't pass the democracy test, that's not a bar. It's a requirement.

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This Is Interesting

Not for the headline, which is completely misleading given the survey, but for the seat model:

The Ontario survey of 1,060 voters shows the Tories at 37 per cent support, a two-per-cent hike over 2006. The Liberals are supported by 32 per cent – a drop of eight percentage points from the last election - while the NDP is backed by 20 per cent – the same as last time. The Green Party is up six per cent to 11 per cent, although its supporters are softer than those of the other parties and have previously moved away from the party come election day.

Snip

When put through a seat model, the Tories could gain up to 10 seats and the NDP seven. The Liberals would lose 17 seats.

So, let's get this straight. The Tories go up 2 percent and can gain 10 seats. The NDP stays the same and may gain 7 seats. The Liberals are down 8 and may lose 17 seats, all because the Greens are up 6 percent and stand to gain zero seats. Got to love the "logic" of FPTP.

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I Am Not Saying I Believe Them, But...

If these numbers are right, the first past the post system is going to have a real workout. The outcome of the election will be in the splits. How nuts is that?

Update: Plugging in these numbers into the Hill & Knowlton seat projector, I get these numbers at the end.

CPC 111
Liberal 89
NDP 54
Bloc 54

Who says Canada is boring?

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News Flash

Don Martin has a satori moment. I congratulate Mr. Martin on his achievement. He now sees Stephen Harper as he truly is, without the fetters of delusion.

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Tuesday Can't Come Soon Enough

So I can wash the bad taste out of my mouth. What a steaming pile we have for a "democracy", here.

Sometime next Wednesday morning, a "winner" will be declared. The winning party will have the support of about a third of those benighted souls who actually turn up to vote. The leader of that winning party, will declare that he has a "mandate" to ignore the other two thirds of the voters and the serious journalists will nod their heads sagely and pretend that that isn't a completely insane position to take. Then they will go back to their favorite pastime, handicapping the "horse races" in the various party leadership contests that are "sure" to ensue. Ordinary Canadians, those who still have roofs over their heads, will switch the channel (if they still have TVs), glad that this putrid carnival is over for another 18 months or so. It is often said that people get the government they deserve. I used to believe that, but not anymore. No body deserves this.

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Ballot Question 2

Which party and leader understands the economic situation at the ground level?



My own question. Why is Stephen Harper smiling? He looks positively giddy at the prospect of profiting from people losing their retirement savings.

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Star To Greens: Go Away

Green supporters should get used to this. The Liberal house organ wants you to just f-off and die. Don't you understand that the Liberal party is the best one to defend your interests? After all they did so much while they were in government, right? Welcome to the big leagues guys. You have now become 'bothersome' to the powers that be.

Update: Of course, it would help if the Greens had a leader who didn't agree with the Star.

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The Interview

After watching the PM's interview with Mansbridge last night, I was struck by two things. First, Harper's "plan" (although he danced like crazy when Mansbridge pushed him on it) is to cut government spending, which during a recession/depression is about the stupidest thing a government can do.

Second, Harper is one cold son of a bitch. Mansbridge tried his best to warn him against his own character, but Harper ignored him. He gleefully indicated that there were many good buys to be had due to the crash. Mansbridge looked absolutely horrified, as he should. This is people's life savings going down the toilet and Harper, death's head grin in place, is telling people not to worry because it just means that those not stupid enough to buy high, can now profit from other people's misfortunes. I have been flamed before for saying this, but Harper is not normal. He has absolutely no empathy for other human beings. This is not a guy you want running the country when the economy is in the toilet.

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Can You Smell The Panic?

The Tories released their platform amid polls suggesting they are losing support in central Canada. Did they stand behind their principles and give the finger to those cheese-eating cultural types, especially in Quebec? They did not. They folded like a cheap umbrella. I suspect it is too little, too late. Duceppe will claim (correctly) that this is a desperate move from a desperate party and that Harper can't be trusted to keep his word (and I am sure Danny Williams is on his speed dial for back up). Flip flopping in the last week is seldom a wise move.

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Kady's Confusion Over Dion's "Plagarism Scandal"

I must admit, I share Kady's confusion:

I have to confess to having suddenly been struck by bout of bepuzzlement over who, exactly, it was who uncovered this “story” in the first place. Was it Steve Janke, or Trusty Tory correspondent Paulsstuff? Although the two posts appeared at roughly the same time — yesterday afternoon — neither appears to have credited the other. Is it possible that the source may have been an unknown third party, who sent along a friendly tip to more than one blogger? The alternative scenario — that Janke and Paulstuff independently, yet virtually simultaneously, stumbled over the same speech, and came to the same conclusions — would seem to be a coincidence so statistically unlikely as to be impossible.

Is it possible Janke and Trusty Tory have cracked the secrets of time travel, and like Hiro and Ando, are right now out, saving the world? Or, could it be that the Tory war room is using the dynamic duo to leak a story so stupid, that they wanted to have some plausible deniability when, not if, this story self-destructed in a blaze of retardedness? Occam's razor will lead you to the right conclusion.

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Good Advice From Gerry Caplan

In today's Globe, Gerry Caplan writes:

If I were Mr. Layton, I'd hammer the deregulation theme to bits. In every area, from Bay Street to food inspection to water inspection, first the Liberals, then the Conservatives, allowed the foxes to take over all the hen-houses. Those chickens have come home to roost, and we don't yet know the political consequences either here or down south.

I think this is really good advice.

Layton's line should be "Where were the other parties when your food was being poisoned? Where they when the banks and Bay Street were practicing all kinds of economic voodoo? And where will they be when the economy falls apart? With their friends on Bay Street, not with you. My friends, both of the old line parties believe regulation is the problem, when we can see tangible proof, with 20 dead citizens and an economy in free fall that regulation is part of the solution. Both the Liberals and Conservatives are wrong and your own eyes and common sense are right. Vote for us and you will elect a party that is on your side, for a change." It is a pretty good line of attack. The question is, will voters believe Layton will be the agent of change they desire?

Update: Interestingly, Liberal Party supporters have a different take. Support the banks y'all. After all, the banks supported the Liberal Party for years.

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Ballot Question

Which party do you trust to get you through a depression? The answer to that question will determine the winner.

Update: Someone close to the PM should tell him that every time he says:

“Let's be clear: the prime minister of Canada isn't going to go around the country predicting a recession when we're not in a recession now,”

voters in central Canada hear: "Alberta is not in a recession, so there is no need to worry." Ontario and Quebec are in bad shape. Just because Alberta's economy is ticking along enough so that "overall", Canada is not technically in recession, does not change that fact. I know it drives Albertans nuts and I am sorry, but the sad fact is, there are more voters in central Canada than Alberta. For the PM to deny the economic reality of the two biggest provinces is stupid politics. The perception here is that he is either divorced from reality or he just doesn't care. Neither perception is a useful one, one week from an election.

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The Next Week Is Going To Be Fascinating

A new poll suggests the Conservatives are sliding further away from majority territory while the NDP are closing in on second in the wake of the two leaders debates.

From the Globe and Mail.

Update:For example, expect to see more like this, in the coming days. I almost feel sorry for Liberals. It's like they are living my life, four years ago. Strategic voting is evil and needs to be ended once and for all.

Update 2: My God, the Liberals' internal numbers must be showing free fall, if they are pulling out these old chestnuts. Dion will be calling Layton "Red Jack" by the end of next week.

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