Saturday, October 11, 2008

This Is Interesting

Not for the headline, which is completely misleading given the survey, but for the seat model:
The Ontario survey of 1,060 voters shows the Tories at 37 per cent support, a two-per-cent hike over 2006. The Liberals are supported by 32 per cent – a drop of eight percentage points from the last election - while the NDP is backed by 20 per cent – the same as last time. The Green Party is up six per cent to 11 per cent, although its supporters are softer than those of the other parties and have previously moved away from the party come election day.
When put through a seat model, the Tories could gain up to 10 seats and the NDP seven. The Liberals would lose 17 seats.
So, let's get this straight. The Tories go up 2 percent and can gain 10 seats. The NDP stays the same and may gain 7 seats. The Liberals are down 8 and may lose 17 seats, all because the Greens are up 6 percent and stand to gain zero seats. Got to love the "logic" of FPTP.
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