Screwed Up System Almost Screws Ontarians

Well we seem to have dodged a bullet, but just barely. The first past the post system did its usual magic and almost produced a majority of seats with less than 38% of the vote. In fact, thanks to the magic of splits, the Liberals with 2% more of the popular vote than the Conservatives go 14 more seats. It is criminal. Add to this, the fact that voter turnout was a pathetic 47.6% and you have to ask yourself whether the whole exercise was even legitimate.

The fact is, this is just another in a long line of phony exercises in kabuki democracy, where the voters know that their votes will be wasted if they back a party other than the two biggest ones and so gave the exercise a pass. It is long past time when we realize that our system of voting is suited to a bygone era of binary politics. We need electoral reform.

Dalton McGuinty is now faced with a minority situation. He has already signaled that he is going to do a Harper and rule like he has a majority and dare the opposition to bring him down. This is unwise for two reasons. First, if he was serious about the need for stability for the province during an economic crisis, he would make a deal with one of the other parties to provide this stability. Second, unlike Harper, McGuinty was just slapped by the voters. It is clear that patience with McGuinty is quite limited and if he pushes the voters, he will not like the answer he receives from them.

My fear is that instead of having a government of give and take and compromise, Ontario will be faced by years of phony confrontations, proroguing and threats of elections. This is the main "feature" of first past the post politics, where a shift of 2% of popular vote yields massive majorities. It is a feature our democracy can no longer afford.

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Another Victim Of FPTP

From the coverage of the Manitoba election:

McFadyen added that his party was the victim of a cruel numbers game under the first-past-the post election system.

"Under any other circumstance we would be happy with 45 per cent of the popular vote," he said. "Obviously we didn't get those votes in the right places.

"It's a very disappointing night for all of us."

It is too bad, the leaders of the parties only see the stupidity of FPTP after being victimized by it. When they profit, it is a wonderful system. The Manitoba NDP did not get a majority of votes and only bested the Conservatives by 1% of the popular vote, but it got twice the number of seats. This stinks and is completely undemocratic. The NDP government in Manitoba should move ahead with electoral reform. That it won't says more about the corruption of NDP by power than anything else.

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People Need To Move On

Liberals, the election is over. FPTP danced a fandango on your asses. Stop bitching and work to change the system. Stop waiting for Canadians to "come to their senses" and do something positive. Otherwise, you are wasting energy on bitterness and what good will that do you?

Btw, what do you think of Andrew Steeles prescription for the NDP? Just become the Liberal Party and all will be well. Puke.

Update: Looking at the some of the Liberal blogs on ProgBlog, I am starting to think that they are the Bourbons of the 21st century. They remember everything and learn nothing.

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Merger Schmerger 2011 Edition.

A stupid, stupid idea, thought up by people who can't count past two. You might as well try to create a gryphon or a chimera for all the good it will do you. If the elites in this country really want to get behind something worthwhile, they should try electoral reform. Trying to join the Liberals and the NDP is a useless waste of time.

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To Hell With A Senate Referendum, Jack

And bold move over electoral reform, Jack. Another committee to study it. Way to go. With initiatives like that, we will see electoral reform sometime after Jesus comes back to Earth.

Here's a counter proposal. Adopt a position, publicly, before an election, that the NDP will not form a coalition with any party that will not agree to the immediate abolition of the Senate and to implement electoral reform. Let the election be your referendum. That is how responsible government is supposed to work.

Update: Rob Silver provides an almost instant taste of the stuff the Liberals would spread during an actual referendum. They specialize in this kind of thing. You see according to Rob Silver, we can't do anything, ever, in this country, because maybe Hitler will rise from his grave and demand equalization payments, if we do. As I said Jack, the only thing these bastards listen to is a kick in the balls. Use whatever leverage you have after the next election wisely. Your coalition partners are evil pricks.

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Click

Jeffrey Simpson flips the switch:

Technically, of course, he’s correct. If the three opposition parties vote down the government on the coming budget, there’ll be an election. A government seriously wishing to forestall that possibility would be negotiating with one or two of the other parties to find common ground, as happens in other countries with proportional representation systems where minority governments are the norm.

In Canada, however, our parties still act as if majority governments are the norm. They haven’t developed the instincts of operating in minority situations, so they make demands on each other that can’t be met, posture endlessly and play brinkmanship electoral games.

It is sad in 2011, that the obvious is having to be pointed out. Our electoral system doesn't work with more than two parties contesting elections. Many of us "out here" know that and would love to see it changed. However, there is an power lust among our political class that deludes our pols into believing that if their party can just play the right game, they will get all the power, unchecked by anyone. It is a sickness and it has all but destroyed our politics.

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One Quibble, Mr. Travers

I agree, on the whole, with your Remembrance Day column, but I take issue with this passage:

Decades after Vimy, the ‘50s Suez peacekeeping solution and five years into a sharp ideological shift, this country had no convincing story to tell. Instead of taking its assumed place in the vanguard of countries finding solutions, Canada is now dismissed as a backslider and obstacle to progress.

There has been no ideological shift in this country. The only shift that has occurred is a shift in votes away from the Liberal Party to the Bloc Quebecois and the Greens. Combine that shift with the "magic" of our retrograde electoral system and voila, Conservative government. So, don't despair, the old Canada is still there. All we need to bring it back is electoral reform, which I hope your newspaper will now support.

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New Definition Of Fair

A comment on a Globe piece on electoral reform:

The results under a proportional representation system would be no less biased. They would simply be differently biased. At the national level, for example, a proportional representation system would give places with large populations (i.e., southern Ontario) a lock on the federal government. Why should someone in Toronto have the whip hand in determining federal policies that will primarily affect northern Canada or the west or east coast (or northern Ontario for that matter)?

The fairest system would balance popular support (through a rep by pop House of Commons) with regional interests (as reflected in an elected senate)

So, in this case bias means the following will of the majority of the nation and fair means a veto for Prince Edward Island? Thanks for clearing that up. Now I know why Canadian politics is as fucked up as it is.

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Like Scorpions In A Bottle

If you want to know what is wrong with Canadian politics, all you need to do is read the following, from an interview between Liberal pollster, Michael Marzolini and Susan Delacourt:

"By the time they [he means anyone] get elected, who knows what the lay of the land looks like. We know that it’s more difficult for the Conservatives to form a majority than it is for the Liberals to form a majority. Because of the Tory weakness in Quebec, you need additional support elsewhere in the country for the Tories. That really means you need about 14 points to form a majority, the Liberals need about 12... There’s no magic number, just a magic plurality." (emphasis mine)

The big parties are obsessed with finding the "magic plurality" (ie getting 40% of the vote so they can then act like dictators for four years) and could really give a goddamn about the majority of voters in this country. Meanwhile, the NDP is doing its level best to become a searcher in this self-destructive snipe hunt.

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Chantal Hebert Shouts At The Moon

Tells Liberals to "wise up" about electoral reform. [Liberal]Why should they do that? Soon, the people of Canada will wise up and we will have a Liberal majority government again[/Liberal]!

Seriously, there are Liberals who are for electoral reform, but they are not in control of the party. In fact, the opponents of reform in Ontario who did the most damage, were Liberals, some of whom reside in the editorial pages of the very Toronto Star, within which Ms. Hebert is writing. So, until Liberal reformers take control of the party, the idea of the Liberal Party, as an institution, getting behind electoral reform is a pipe dream.

Update: As if on cue, we see the "Just wait and the Liberals will control all, once again" wing of the Liberal Party pop up.

Update 2: Ok, so it looks like BCL does support the idea of electoral reform, but I still hold that hanging on to the idea that a Liberal majority is just around the corner is a zombie that just won't die, in spite of the overwhelming evidence to the contrary. It is this zombie that is holding the Liberals back from truly embracing reform.

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File This Under So What

So what, a majority of the population (58%) wants Harper to fund abortions overseas. Harper is ruling for his 30% base and no one else. In fact, everyone else can go fuck themselves. 30%, as long as Harper can slice the remaining votes the right ways, gives him minority government forever. God bless FPTP.

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Jeffrey Simpson Argues Against Evil Coalitions. Harper Smiles

Mr. Simpson, let me set you straight. First, the election was just last week. The people of the U.K. created the present configuration of the House of Commons through a democratic vote (however grotesquely warped the voting system).

This democratically elected House of Commons is now in the process of deciding who will form the government, based on who has and can keep confidence. If it is the will of the majority of this democratically elected House of Commons that the electoral system should be changed, it is a democratically arrived at decision on its face. So, please spare me the whining about referenda. Referenda are one tool of democratic governance, but not the only one and indeed, in my opinion, not the best one. The people of the U.K. elected their MP's to lead and pay them pretty well to do so. Let the will of the House of Commons, as created by the people, do its job and stop trying to Americanize the Westminster system. God knows that route has done nothing to enhance either Canada's democracy, or the reputations of our legislatures.

Update:Let me just add that for all his appeals to "democracy", Mr. Simpson seems quite willing to accept a system whereby absolute power is handed over to a single party that enjoys less than fifty percent support from the voters. It seems that Mr. Simpson's democratic tendencies are more sham than real. He likes the trappings of democracy, as long as the trains run on time.

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Where Have I Heard This Before?

Polly Toynbee in the Guardian:

If not now, when? For the first time the prize is within grasp. The people have spoken – and none of the above won. Radical reform to an electoral system that has fallen apart is at last on offer. The deadly duopoly between two moribund parties has broken. But will it be cobbled together again as if nothing had happened?

I won't get too excited about this. I have seen this movie far too often for that. I will just say that I hope electoral reform does come to the U.K. No one (except us) deserves a functioning electoral system more.

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Why I Hate Canadian Politics In One Sentence (Or Two)

Provided by John Ibbitson:

Let the opposition parties fight over who is greener, let them rage at the Conservatives’ callous disregard for needed investments. They’ll split the vote, such as it is.

The cynical attitude about our undemocratic electoral system is so open, so raw, that it is almost refreshing. In fact, it would be refreshing if it didn't make me want to slit my own throat.

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35.6

That's the government's polling number this week. Even after it has been made clear to everyone that the government knew about, but did nothing to stop, prisoners from being tortured for over a year, over one in three voters are willing to back the Conservatives. While, in a normal world, this would be not a bad outcome (after all a majority of Canadians don't support the thugs who are running the place), we don't live in a normal world. We live in a first past the post world, where over one in three is still in government territory. What I am saying is, until we get rid of FPTP, we will be ruled by people who turn a blind eye to torture, supported by people who don't think that is a bad thing.

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No, But

Brian Topp from his concluding essay about the coalition:

Canada does not have to have a fundamentally illegitimate, hyper-centralized, artificial “majority” government elected through the quirks of our antiquated electoral system, against the wishes of the real majority of our citizens. We are not eternally condemned to elected dictatorship or to Napoleonic politics.

Nor does Canada have to be governed by isolated minority administrations, surviving through inaction or Parliamentary blackmail and brinksmanship.

This is true. We don't have to have these things. But, as long as the elites of this country see their interests best served by this dysfunctional system, and as long as the population at large can be cowed into submission by fear politics and tribalism, this is what we will have. Canada, as a country, would benefit from time in counseling. It is a sick place. Sick at its very core.

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My Take On The By-Elections

Harper won two more rural seats and so two more votes against the long gun registry and for money transfers from the cities to the country (Yippee). The Tories are still going nowhere fast in the cities, but who gives a shit about them? They are milch cows, nothing more. The big story, as far as I am concerned is voter turnout. It was low, historically low. We are headed to an era of governments elected with double minorities -- of participation and share. Unless something good happens and soon, we will be lying to ourselves if we call Canada a democracy.

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Today's Must Read

John Ibbitson. He speaks the truth, friends. Our political system is totally skewed toward rural Canada. We live in a potemkin democracy, ruled over by a rural rump. Is there no politician in Canada with enough guts to overthrow the status quo and give us a fair electoral system? I wish I could say yes, but the evidence is most definitely pointed in the opposite direction.

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MMP In New Zealand

No surprise here. The conservative National Party (and their big business buddies) wants to dump MMP and go back to FPTP. I doubt it will happen but this bears watching.

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Sunday Morning Thoughts

If you read this exchange between Bob Rae and Thomas Mulcair, you will see two different perceptions of the Liberal Party. Rae sees the Liberals as a misunderstood force for good, put upon by all sides. The Mulcair sees the Liberals as a bunch of do nothings, who talk left and govern right. If you look out in the blogosphere, these perceptions are common in Liberal and NDP blogs. To me this would indicate a couple of things. First, it is virtually useless for Liberals to try to poach NDP support at this point. People who are voting NDP these days tend to share Mulcair's view of the Liberal Party. NDP voters just do not like, nor do they trust, the Liberals (largely, I would submit, due to the behavior of past Liberal majority governments).

Second, the Liberals are going to have a tough time growing their party beyond the limited range in which they find themselves. If you look at the polls, this is not because of the NDP. The NDP is stuck in its own historical range and has been for years. What has changed is the rise of specific issue parties, the Bloc and the Greens. To me, it is no coincidence that the rise of the Greens especially, has happened at the same time Liberal support has fallen. If you add the two parties' support together you get the traditional Liberal numbers. The NDP, for all the bluster on the Liberal side, has not eaten into their voter base. Liberals need to get this through their heads. The NDP threat is more illusion than real. The Liberal Party is losing support elsewhere.

So, what is the way forward? I would suggest electoral reform. I know this sends Liberals to the exits, muttering to themselves about "only needing another 10% of the vote to get a majority", but hear me out. These trends are not going away. The days of Liberal majorities are past. In fact, what I am seeing is Conservative minorities as far as the eye can see. However, if Liberals join forces with the NDP and Greens to push for electoral reform that reflects the electoral wishes of the voters, they may yet again get to sit on the government side of the House of Commons. Liberals may not like sharing the stage with smaller parties (and believe me the feeling is more than mutual), but Liberal supporters (and of NDP and Greens) have to ask themselves whether the alternative of perpetual Conservative governments is better? The voters and supporters of each party do not have to like each other, but perhaps they can find common ground to work together. Poaching supporters from the other parties is not working and is only helping the Conservatives. It's time to try something else.

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