Friday, October 10, 2008

I Am Not Saying I Believe Them, But...

If these numbers are right, the first past the post system is going to have a real workout. The outcome of the election will be in the splits. How nuts is that?

Update: Plugging in these numbers into the Hill & Knowlton seat projector, I get these numbers at the end.

CPC 111
Liberal 89
NDP 54
Bloc 54

Who says Canada is boring?
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  1. Hill and Knowlton is fun, but I'm afraid it doesn't mean crap. Wait for Greg to update based on the latest numbers over at democraticSPACE.

  2. On the other hand, one of the fun things about electoral theory... that's almost, but not quite, at the point where each party can be considered to have exactly equal real power.

    The classic example: three parties, 100 seats / 90 seats / 11 seats. Exactly equal real power; any legislation needs two parties behind it, and it doesn't actually matter which two. So the 89 seat spread means nothing.

    Of course real government's not so simple by a long stretch. But it might still explain why FPTP has not yet melted down completely - a counterfactor to the inequities one way, pointing in the opposite direction.