Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Facing Facts

This is a point I just made at Greg Staples place. Liberal supporters are going to have to face the facts. Harper and Layton are going where the votes are in Quebec and that is where the Bloc resides. Harper is going after the right wing of the Bloc coalition and Layton the left. The Liberals are stuck in their enclaves of ever shrinking Trudeauism. It is not hard to imagine sometime soon, an electoral map where the Montreal area is orange and a little red and the countryside is blue. In other words, Quebec is becoming a lot more like the rest of Canada, but for its own unique reasons. Does that make the Liberals irrelevant? Well, the fact that the Tories and NDP are looking elsewhere for votes, should tell you something.

Update: And though Andrew Coyne is a much more subtle guy than I am, I think he agrees with me.
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5 comments:

  1. It's what Harper and Layton are trying to do, yes.

    Can it be done for more than an election cycle or two? That's what we're going to find out.

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  2. I should add one more thing -- they're doing it thinking that this swath of the electorate isn't actually separatist, when it comes down to it. (Those polls that show when there's a real question about Quebec becoming independent with no ties to the ROC, it gets around 20%.)

    Is this a good calculation? Hard to say. It's what blew up on Mulroney, but Mulroney brought that on himself by ratcheting up the pressure more and more and more. I think that these guys have learnt their lesson from that.

    But we'll see...

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  3. Quebec is becoming a lot more like the rest of Canada, but for its own unique reasons.

    That's a really insightful way of putting that.

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  4. That's a really insightful way of putting that.

    Thank you. I do have some insight, when I am not too busy ranting. ;)

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  5. Great observation, Greg. And to be very specific, Montreal could be looking a lot more like Toronto and Vancouver. Outremont and its surrounding Bloc ridings strike a strong resemblance to the characteristics of NDP held ridings in Vancouver and Toronto.

    Interesting times in Quebec...

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