Friday, February 08, 2008

The Fog Is Clearing

At last some real poll numbers. Nick Nanos please do more polls. This could explain why the Tories are eager to go now. There seems to be a "It's now or never" vibe coming from the government side. And for all those in the blogosphere who have posted obituaries for the NDP, take a look at their numbers (and remember these are real numbers by a real pollster).
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  1. Fester--and I'm not ragging you here--how solid will the NDP numbers ultimately be given the antipathy many moderates feel for Harper personally and for the increasingly authoritative nature of his government?

    I'm not crazy about the liberals right now, and also wonder about their future under Izzy. Rae I don't mind so much. I have to say, though, that I think their brand has a better chance against the Alliance-Reform party steadily emerging from its Tory chrysalis. (Also, don't you wonder if Jack Layton looks too much like a river-boat gambler to lead a socialist party?)

  2. Well, given the increase in the Green numbers as well, there could be a certain amount of vote parking going on. On the other hand, I think this is a much more realistic picture of the strength of the NDP than either Decima or Ipsos were presenting. If (and this is a really big if, the voters do not stampede to the Liberals because they are the biggest "not quite Conservatives" party), the NDP might do well this time. However, I think the glories of the first past the post system will once again spoil the party.