Thursday, August 20, 2009

Oh No!

The Tories are warning that they want a majority this time, or else -- A COALITION WILL PULL THE PLUG ON GRANDMA! Watch the media for pants-shitting, by various anonymous "Liberal officials". We all know it is coming.
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  1. Of course it was coming. We knew that in December 2008, when Dion was first pushed out.

    As for whether they stride the land like gods... well, that'll be an interesting campaign to see. :p

  2. Huh -- see that Ipsos poll with them up by 11? Maybe they _do_ bestride the land like gods? Who knew?

  3. Quite a coincidence eh? A favorable Ipsos poll just before the Liberal retreat. (I know I should have said "a Liberal retreat", but you know what I mean).

  4. I was, I will admit, a little surprised.

    My forecast of events was this:

    Sept. 2009: Gov't falls, election day set for early November 2009.
    early Oct. 2009: Tory ad campaign against Ignatieff, along with regular early campaign stuff, pushes Tories to 40-28 lead over the Liberals in the tracking polls.
    late Oct. 2009: debates, issue releases, a scandal or two -- these all move votes one way or another.
    Election Day: Either Harper or Ignatieff win a plurality of seats, but with a non-trivial chance of an actual Harper majority.

    Scenario I: 140 Tories re-elected, Tories stay in power. Harper spends next six months pondering his leadership.
    Scenario II: 158 Tories elected, Harper has his majority.
    Scenario III: 130 Liberals elected, Ignatieff cuts deal with Layton for support of his government's first Throne Speech, and... Harper stays on as LOO at Stornaway, laying in wait.

    I figured that it was about a one-third chance for each.

    Seeing the Tories get their double-digit lead pre-writ drop, I wonder if we'll get to see one.

    So is Iggy going to be Dion redux? "I hate you, but I'm going to support you anyway"?

  5. I suspect the backtracking will begin any second.

  6. Of course, if Harper is feeling lucky, he can use the EI talks as a pretext for pulling the plug himself. As Spock would say, fascinating.

  7. I like elections.

    If Iggy is feeling frisky, there's another poll out showing him slightly in the lead -- 32-31 over Harper (yes, a statistical tie)...

    So I hope they go for it.