Softwood Trade Peace In Our Time Watch

Well, Steve's unconditional surrender of Canada's softwood lumber industry is turning out about as well as I thought it would. That is to say, not well. The Americans, emboldened by Spineless Steve's capitualtion, have come back for more. The sad thing about this whole situation is this. Before Steve's act of cowardice, we may have had a chance to fend these bastards off. But, thanks to Steve, we have unilaterally disarmed and have virtually no weapons to bring to bear in this fight. I wonder if this is going to be an election issue? I just wonder. Hat tip to Robert.

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Mario Dumont, Friend Of Steve, Separatist

Is it raining toads? I just thought I would ask because Rex Murphy agrees with me. That surely, is a bad sign for us all. In particular, these paragraphs summarize everything I feel is going on with Mr. Dumont (behind the wall, but this is working for the moment):

I suggest the reason Mr. Dumont is so obliging in dismissing a referendum from his political arsenal is that he sees it has become a useless ritual toward the advancement of goals ever so conveniently being achieved without one.

After all, if the federal Parliament declares by resolution that “the Québécois form a nation,” if its “powers” are ever more exercised separately from any central mandate, if Quebec has an international presence, and if the goal of the only dynamic party in the province of Quebec right now is to expand the latitudes of its already generously established autonomy — why chatter about some damn referendum? This boat sails better without that dropped anchor.

Quebec is and has been quietly disengaging itself, with the co-operation in particular of Mr. Harper's government, from its provincial status within the Confederation. It is edging toward an equivalent status with the rest of the country seen as a whole.

In other words, when you have a Prime Minister who either because he shares your vision for an indepenedent Quebec within a loose confederation of independent states, or for crass political expediency, does a limbo dance in order to help your cause, you don't need referenda. You just need to act. Mr. Dumont said it would be a mistake to think of him as a federalist. We should believe him. I would only add, that I think it is a mistake to think of Steve as a federalist, too.

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Friday Ravi Blogging

I am going out tonight with the missus. So here for your enjoyment, the wonderful, Ravi Shankar on the Dick Cavett Show.

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We Are All Just Market Segments Now

Greg Staples' posting yesterday bothered me. He pointed out how the Tories are aiming to turn the "suburban vote" toward them and "against" the Liberals (and NDP). That bothered me, first because it didn't seem to bother him, and because I think at its best, politics and politicians should be trying to bridge differences rather than bombing those bridges. Coincidentally, Susan Riley's column today has that same sense of disquiet:

People grow and change, of course, while opportunists follow the money (and power). Often, however, it is hard to tell the difference. Nor does it help that political parties reduce us to retail demographics: the Tim Hortons crowd versus Starbucks-sippers, hockey dads and soccer moms versus academic snobs and downtown dilettantes, or the NDP spin -- "average Canadians" and "working families" versus the "wealthiest CEOs."

Notice the word "versus." Politics has always been a competitive sport, but Harper has professionalized this divisive instinct, partly with the help of imported strategists. It also propelled Dumont's recent breakthrough -- this carving electors into watertight compartments labeled urban/rural, or immigrant/old stock, or family-oriented/single. It creates a nation of outsiders/ insiders; it appeals to old resentments, not to shared dreams.

What bothers me most is it is an imported "red state/blue state" mentality that dismisses whole segments of the population, just because they either live in the wrong place or are artificially identified as enemies of the people. As Riley points out, this kind of politics creates two classes of voters, those who count and those who deserve only contempt. It is a bad place for our poltics to go. We should get off this train.

Update: Another thing that upsets me is the usurption of our national symbols by this government. There was a time when the military and police were our neighbours, our boys, everyone's. Now, they "belong" only to the Harper government. No one is allowed to love them as much as they do. If you don't agree with every decision of the government, you "obviously" hate the police and military. It is a terrible (and disgusting) thing to have. It is also a dangerous thing in a democracy, for one party to claim to have a monopoly on patriotism.

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Bill C 30

Kudos to the NDP for shepherding the improved Clean Air Act through committee. No matter what happens now, it shows the public what can be done, if the will exists. Watching Baird's reaction on the CBC after the committee was done, I saw a man who was having an existential crisis. You could tell that he has been affected by the science since he has taken the job, but was still spewing the same old bullshit talking points of the Conservative Party. He sounded unconvinced by his own words. He has never looked so self-awarely lame.

Update: I was also amused by Baird's parliamentary secretary's (Mark Warawa) denunciation of "carbon taxes" on Don Newman's show. When it was pointed out (start at 44:20) that the government just past a carbon tax in the recent budget (in the form of a tax on SUV purchases), I thought the poor guy's head was going to pop off. It was one of those "Yes but, no but, yes but" moments every politician fears.

Update 2:Another thought occurs. Since the Tories seem hell bent on destroying Dion's leadership street cred, such victories for the NDP can only enhance Layton's. If the Tories go too far (and it looks like they know no other way), it could collapse the Liberal vote and the NDP will be there as a credible alternative. We could see a repeat of the Quebec vote across the country.

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Speaking Of Steve's Buddies

Steve and Zacc in happier times

I wonder if this means Zacc is off the Christmas card list?

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Greg Weston Gets The Picture

Weston is slightly troubled by Steve's new best friend in Quebec:

What more could Dumont want? Apparently, lots.

He would like Quebec to heave the Canada Health Act, and move to a mix of public and private medical care.

Dumont thinks it would be better for Quebec to collect all of its own income and other taxes, sending an appropriate amount to Ottawa (read: Not much), rather than the other way around.

The ADQ platform also talks about Quebecers getting their own citizenship and separate constitution.

And while they're at it, Dumont apparently thinks it would be a nice touch to rename the whole place the "Autonomous State of Quebec."

Add it all up, and the definition of "autonomous" would appear to be a province that controls everything and everyone within its borders, while the rest of Canada just sends money. Sweet.

If this is the vision Steve has for the country, he should say so, openly. If not, he should, again openly, tell his buddy to sod off.

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Note To Self

Never cross Danny Williams.

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Dumont Line Of The Day

Courtesy of Akaash Maharaj:

Anyone who can denounce “reasonable accommodation” of minorities in Quebec and demand that they assimilate into the provincial majority, and simultaneously demand that Canada take extraordinary steps to protect francophones from assimilation into the broader national society, is not someone who can be relied upon to negotiate from a position of principle or ethical consistency.

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Harper's New Little Buddy

Mario Dumont's coming out party:

The Action democratique du Quebec leader continued to push the concept of more autonomy for the province within Canada and warned that federalists shouldn't consider him one of their own. "I hope that's not how they perceive me," Dumont told a news conference a day after his party won a staggering 41 seats in the provincial election.

"That would be a mistake."

The only mistake would be for people to swallow Steve's line that we now have two leading parties in Quebec dedicated to Canada.

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Alternative To The 4 Cylons

Attention fellow geeks. Perhaps the four "Cylons" are not "Cylons" at all. Maybe they are 40 light years from Earth and the song is a beacon. Why else play a song from somewhere neither cylons nor these humans have ever been?

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Nothing New Under The Sun

If the ADQ is the natural heir to the Union Nationale, which I think it is, Tories are riding on the back of a nasty tiger indeed.

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Living In Interesting Times

Well, I guess we will find out more about Mario Dumont now. I am glad the PQ got kicked in the ass. They have been a constant thorn in the side of the nation for 40 years. Whether this is a blip or a historic shift, we will see, but for now it is good to see the PQ in eclipse. I would warn those who embrace the "Autonomist" ADQ, (and in particular Tories), to be careful what you wish for. Dumont's vision of conservative nationalism may be more than you bargained for.

I realize the stunning rise of ADQ power is like red meat to the Blogging Tories who were pretty jazzed by the prospect of a spring election before the results of the Quebec election were known. This is inevitable, I'm afraid. They were itching to go before and will be howling now. I can live with that.

Harper may not have much choice but to call an election. The conditions seem perfect for him (even though I am convinced they are not) and the temptation to go is overwhelming. If an election comes, it comes. I think the NDP is well placed to do well, united by a stable leadership and comfortable in its own skin, while the Liberals are in big trouble. I don't look forward to my third trip to the polls in three years (this time with added ID requirements), but I don't fear it either.

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The Urban Legend Party

Jason Cherniak has daringly exposed the Liberals as the "Urban Legend Party". Apparently, they fought for changes to the electoral laws in Canada, based on an urban legend about Olivia Chow.

The rumour around TO (Let me be very clear; I am not suggesting that the rumour is true. I am only stating that it is out there.) is that Olivia Chow won because NDP supporters from across the city voted early and often at different polling stations in Trinity-Spadina. I don't know if it's true, but just the rumour led the federal Liberals to fight for a new rule that voters must show ID before receiving their ballot. (emphasis mine)

As I say, pretty daring stuff. But that's not the end of the story.

I hear a rumour (I don't know if it is true but it's out there) that the Liberals are going to propose other new policies based on other urban legends. I heard that they are going to propose a change to the Telecommunications Act, in order to prevent intra-house phone dialing. This is to stop psycho-killers from calling babysitters from upstairs extensions. I also heard they are going to propose a change to the Transplanted Tissues Act, to prevent hookers from drugging stupid guys in bars and stealing their kidneys. Thank God the Liberals are out there protecting citizens from made up stories. Let's hear it for the Liberal Party, legends In their own minds. Hat tip to POGGE.

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Parizeau's Dentist Lives On Parliament Hill

Either call an election or govern. Choose one. The constant tease (Will we? Won't We? When? Now?) is getting old. Fast. God, how I wish we had an electoral system that would take the constant temptation to "go for the majority (ie 40%)" away from these clods.

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Friday Night Ravi Blogging

Ladies and gentlemen. The one, the only, the sublime, Ravi Shankar.

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The Liberal Pro-Scab Faction

If a political realignment is coming, how MPs voted on this bill should form the basis of who fits into the "progressive" category and who does not. Once again it is the Liberals who stab their own progressive wing in the back, in order to appease their masters on Bay Street.

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Steve's Personal CF 18

Is the Quebec Tax cut with federal equalization money, the new CF 18 contract writ large? It sure seems so. The master strategist may have screwed the pooch on this one. In the zero sum game that is federal provincial relations, it would seem a fundamental principal not to weigh the scales in favour of one province so much that the others can gang up on both that province and the feds. This looks like it is going to get ugly and it may cause the Conservatives to re-think their election timing. On the other hand if it gets really ugly, the other parties will start pounding their own election drums. No one every said politics was dull.

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No More Violence

To those who are threatening violence against Farzana Hassan-Shahed, and Tarek Fatah, just stop it. Your threats are doing more to sully the good name of Islam than anything those two can do. Violence is not the answer, it is a problem. If you don't like what Hassan-Shahed and Fatah are saying, engage them in debate. "Slaughter" them if you must, but do it with the force of your arguments and not with weapons.

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Rumbling In the East And West

The budget may not be the big winner, the Harperites think it is. Sure they dumped billions into Quebec, but Quebecers expect that money as their due. The political payoff may not be that big for Harper. He will probably not lose seats in Quebec, but if Charest fails to become Premier, he will probably not pick up any either. Meanwhile, it looks like premiers in both the east and the west are falling all over themselves to denounce Harper as a liar and traitor. It seems that Harper is counting on big increases in Quebec and Ontario to help him push him over the top into majority territory. His job might be more difficult than he imagines if he begins the election by losing 12 seats in Saskatchewan and 9 in Atlantic Canada.

Update: And if this perception takes off, the budget will deliver fewer votes than expected in Ontario too.

Update 2: Coyne chimes in and he agrees with me, so today he is a genius. ;)

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NDP Opposition To The Budget

I am reading some criticism of NDP opposition to the budget. This budget is not a disaster (thank God), but the NDP is right to oppose it because it doesn't meet the party's demands for support. First, it keeps giving tax breaks to the oil sands. This is completely stupid as the oil companies are making insane profits (where else but in the oil sector would a profit of over $600 million be considered "disappointing"). Second, the budget falls short on so many traditional NDP demands on things like daycare and the environment, that the party would have no choice but to oppose it. As, I say, this budget is not the worst one I have ever seen, but it definitely is a "Let's Pretend Liberal" one. That is, money tossed around everywhere, except where it is most needed.

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You Won't Like Me When I'm Angry

I don't like Ibbitson when he's not angry either. To say he hates the Harperite's budget, is an understatement. How's he feeling? You can tell from the first sentence:

How Liberal is this allegedly Conservative budget? It's so Liberal that it actually revives the sponsorship program.

Ouch. He goes on like this for several paragraphs. Then he puts his brain in neutral and his true personality shows through.

Vast swaths of the suburban middle class may start to wonder whether maybe this Harper fellow isn't as scary as his critics make him out to be and, besides, that baby bonus sure has come in handy.

The Liberals and the NDP, meanwhile, fight over the downtown Toronto lesbian vote.(emphasis mine)

"Fight over the downtown Toronto lesbian vote?" WTF? Have you ever read a more contempt filled (and not to mention stereotyped filled) phrase this week? If you don't like the budget, fine, John, but don't go out of your way to slap a group you hold in obvious contempt (and who, by the way, face the same issues as all other Canadian families). Imagine the reaction in some quarters if Ibbitson had substituted the word "Jewish" for "lesbian". I guess John thinks it is all right to put women down, though. I think John needs to put down his pen and go for a walk.

Update: What did I think of the budget? The one thing Ibbitson got right was his characterization of the budget as "Liberal". This is the budget Ralph Goodale would have delivered if he was Finance Minister this year. It will not scare people, but I have a feeling the conservative true believers, will be questioning their faith this morning.

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Speaking Of Arrogant Pols

I see Queen Elizabeth is dropping in on Nova Scotia, during the upcoming election. No, not that Queen Elizabeth, this one. All she asks is that all the other parties not run anyone against her. Not too much to ask in a general election, eh? The fact that this seat could possibly be won by the NDP (they were the second place party last time out) and thus hurt the Liberals profile in the province, I'm sure had no bearing on her decision. Splitting the vote in a riding the Liberals and Greens couldn't win in anyway and re-electing a Tory is preferable to the Liberals (and Ms. May) than chancing an NDP victory, I guess.

For the record, Elizabeth May lives in Ottawa and has done so since 1985. Is there some problem running where you live Elizabeth?

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One Man's Ambition

Don't let Harper fool you. If he tries to pull the plug on Parliament in the next week, it won't be because the opposition is blocking his crime bills. This is about one man's ambition to rule Canada as a king. Canadians should ask themselves and any Tory candidate coming to the door, whether it is worth $225 million tax dollars and a third trip to the polls in three years to fulfill Stephen Harper's private dream? I am sure the NDP is ready for an election and it is in pretty good shape economically, but I am also sure they would rather keep this parliament going to get things like the Clean Air Act passed. What a waste of time and our money.

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Bill Blaikie, Class Act

I see Bill Blaikie is retiring. He is a classy guy and parliament will miss him. I guess he couldn't stand the debauchery that passes for politics in the modern era. Who can blame him? I wish him all the best in his retirement. I suspect we will hear from him again.

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NDP Ads Are Awesome

All I can say is, it's about time. These ads are positive and frankly, brilliant. "Don't let them tell you it can't be done." What a great slogan. It is the rebirth of left wing populism. I have been waiting for years for this moment.

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Someone Else In Warren's Sights

From yesterday's blog:

Greetings from Florida. On our way to the Mouse House.

A few of us are trying to figure out who this bigot [canadianobserver.wordpress.com] is. Tips can be sent to the usual place, at wkinsella@hotmail.com.

Time to shine a light on another coackroach! (sic)

I took a look at that site and I must say, I am confused. Aside from calling Kinsella an "ass", which is admittedly schoolyardish, I didn't see much "bigotry" on display. What I did see was a lot of questioning of the policies of the government of Israel and a skepticism of the opinion leaders of the North American Jewish community. That may or may not be wrong headed, but it in no way satisfies the definition of bigotry. Mr. Kinsella should take care that, in his legitimate zeal to defend the Jewish community against anti-Semitism, he does not cross into anti-democratic stifling of dissent.

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Something For Mario To Consider

Private health care advocate and Quebec Premier wannabe, Mario Dumont should take a look at the mother of all private systems in yesterday's Slate Magazine:

The current system is increasingly inaccessible to many poor and lower-middle-class people (about 47 million Americans lack health insurance, up from about 40 million in 2000); those lucky enough to have coverage are paying steadily more and/or receiving steadily fewer benefits; the increasingly complex warfare between insurers and hospitals over who pays the bills is gobbling up a great deal of money and resources; and the end result is that the United States pays roughly twice as much per capita for health care as Canada, France, and the United Kingdom yet experiences slightly lower life expectancy than those countries and significantly higher infant mortality. The problems inherent in the U.S. system of health care are literally killing people.

Sure makes me want to switch to a private insurance system. How about you?

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Tory Trough Watch

I see another of the Prime Minister's friends has decided to lobby the government. The lobbying frenzy is starting to take on a decidedly Liberal smell. Soon, very soon, the scandal watch will begin and the circle of life will be complete.

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Afghanistan: Who's On First?

The questions we need to ask ourselves are who is making policy for this country viz. Afghanistan, the elected Gordon O'Connor, or the unelected Rick Hiller? And, since the Tory party appears to be trying to turn the Canadian military into its own private militia, does it matter?

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May Off Target

The Jurist points out that Elizabeth May is selling out the Green's by appearing to accept Alberta's "intensity targets" dodge.

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NoteTo Progressives

Coming out in favour of civil liberties better positions the Liberals to make their classic, and usually successful, feint to the left during the next election campaign. (emphasis mine)

If Tom Walkom understands that the Liberals are frauds and that any move to the left is just a "feint", why don't you?

Update: One other thing, progressives. Do you think Noam Chomsky is like Heinrich Himmler? If so vote Liberal. If not, there are alternatives.

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Proportionality

For the record, I support the state of Israel (even though I think their government is often off track). I think questioning its existence is stupid and useless and frankly, repugnant. I also vote NDP. As a supporter of the state of Israel, it pains me when I see major, "pro-Israel" lobby groups, hanging around (and even celebrating) with people who support Israel only as a means to bring about the end of the world, in fulfillment of their twisted interpretation of the Christian faith. These "friends" of Israel are the ones we should be worried about. These are the people we need to warn the population against. Instead, we read a condemnation (justified as it is) only of the rantings of a Canadian political blogger, with no real power or influence. I think we need to get some perspective here. Which of the two is the real threat to Israel, the embrace of its "supporters" of Christian fundamentalists, from the last superpower on earth, or the writings of a guy from London, Ontario?

I respect Warren Kinsella. I have only met him once, at a blogging party in Toronto, and I have to say he is a delightful and charming guy. I just wish he would recognize the difference between a real threat to Israel and a fake one.

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One Nation, Divisible....Oops

Wells is on fire over the whole "partition" of Quebec. I wonder when (if?) Harper will have anything to say about this? I suspect he will be too busy judging ice-fishing derbies to comment.

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Cult Of Contrived Masculinity

I meant to mention this gem by Glenn Greenwald. Read and see if you don't agree that many of the themes he describes, the appeal of the "strong leader" to men who feel under threat, the attempt to portray the opposition as emasculated, etc., are playing out here too. It really is an interesting glimpse into the psychology of the modern conservative movement.

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Culture Of Corruption: Tory Edition

It has taken less than two years for the Tories to be absorbed into their own little culture of corruption. Take this case for example. Does one have to use much of one's imagination to picture the Tory reaction if this story had come to light during the Liberal years (Mr. Speaker, this just shows the cozy relationship between the ruling party and the big banks, etc.)? All hell would have broken loose. Now...not so much. I guess it all depends who is being cozy with the big banks, eh?

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And These Are Israel's Friends?

Is this messed up or what? With friends like these, Israel doesn't need enemies.

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Steve's Favorite Police Force Full Of Crap

Greg Weston, in a move designed to make me forget his poll spinning, has come out with a blistering column against RCMP spinning. At last, someone in the media is calling "Bullshit" on the Mounties for pointing the finger of blame on the opposition for their own failures on Air India. Key graphs:

First, it has been almost three years since the Supreme Court ruled investigative hearings are constitutional.

Yet for all the RCMP's urgency to get to the bottom of the Air India tragedy, for all the feds were supposedly relying on investigative hearings, the Mounties had not put a single potential witness through the process by the time the provision died last week.

Indeed. It sounds like something I might have written, two weeks ago.

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Timber!

Read this article and consider: 1) this "deal" (sellout?) for a decade looks like it is falling apart after a few months and 2) if the Americans think the feds don't have the clout to stand up to the provinces now, wait until Harper gets done with the place. They will never sign a future deal the emasculated hulk of a federal government, envisioned by our glorious leader. What then, separate side deals with each province, playing one off against the other in a race to the bottom? The other political parties should talk this up a bit and see what the great man has to say about it. Hat tip to the Wingnutter.

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Apropos Of Nothing

1Jesus went unto the mount of Olives.

2And early in the morning he came again into the temple, and all the people came unto him; and he sat down, and taught them.

3And the scribes and Pharisees brought unto him a woman taken in adultery; and when they had set her in the midst,

4They say unto him, Master, this woman was taken in adultery, in the very act.

5Now Moses in the law commanded us, that such should be stoned: but what sayest thou?

6This they said, tempting him, that they might have to accuse him. But Jesus stooped down, and with his finger wrote on the ground, as though he heard them not.

7So when they continued asking him, he lifted up himself, and said unto them, He that is without sin among you, let him first cast a stone at her.

8And again he stooped down, and wrote on the ground.

9And they which heard it, being convicted by their own conscience, went out one by one, beginning at the eldest, even unto the last: and Jesus was left alone, and the woman standing in the midst.

10When Jesus had lifted up himself, and saw none but the woman, he said unto her, Woman, where are those thine accusers? hath no man condemned thee?

11She said, No man, Lord. And Jesus said unto her, Neither do I condemn thee: go, and sin no more.

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Dumont Hearts Harper

Mario Dumont wants an "autonomous" Quebec and thinks Stephen Harper is just the man to give it to him. I wonder if Mr. Harper can explain to the rest of the nation, just what an autonomous Quebec means and whether the rest of the provinces will be "autonomous" too? Perhaps he can explain how such a collection of "autonomous" regions are to function as a country (why, for example, should an "autonomous" Ontario pay for an "autonomous" Quebec, through equalization? How "autonomous" is an "autonomous" region if it is supported by cash from somewhere else?). I have to wonder, is it fair to ask at this point whether Mr. Harper is "soft on separatism"?

Update:Courtesy of Mr. Wells. It looks like Mr. Harper needs to explain his thoughts about his vision with more than English Canada.

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Polls And The Politics Of Spin

SES, my favourite pollster, has released a new poll today. I have to say it is a bit of a disappointment because it does not include voting intentions. What it is instead is a reading of Canada's "comfort" level about the idea of a Conservative majority. Take a look at the poll chart here. Take a good look at it because there will be a quiz later.

This poll, like all polls, come with its own spin, courtesy of the MSM and the blogging community. Greg Weston, in the Sun, admits:

Since the first SES-Sun Media poll in August last year, the latest survey found little change nationally in how voters feel about the possibility of a Conservative majority government -- the percentages of those comfortable and uncomfortable with the idea are roughly equal.

Which is true, there has been no statistically significant shift in opinion on this question since August. Then Weston decides to take a trip to spinland.

But SES head Nik Nanos, one of Canada's most respected political analysts, says the fact almost half of Quebec voters polled said they would be okay with a Tory majority is good news for the Conservatives, and potentially terrible news for the Liberals.

"Even though Quebecers aren't saying they are voting Conservative, these numbers provide a comfort scale that suggests they could support Harper -- he is no longer the boogeyman," Nanos notes.

While it is true that Tory numbers are somewhat better in Quebec, a majority of Quebecers are still uncomfortable with the idea of a Tory majority. Talk about accentuating the positive. Why did Weston zero in on Quebec? Good question, one I wish I could ask him, because if you look at the other regional numbers, the Tory numbers are trending down in both Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

So why choose to emphasize this one bit of good news? Well, it fits into the new conventional wisdom in Ottawa, that Harper is unbeatable and everyone should just give up and vote in a Tory majority. I take my hat off to the Tory machine, they have worked tirelessly to create this conventional wisdom. Shame on the MSM for swallowing it so easily.

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Gee, This Is A Surprise

The RCMP investigated themselves over the massacre in Mayerthope and guess what? They are not to blame for any of it. Those young policemen were left on their own, with no backup, on an isolated farm of a known career loon, who loved guns and it was all an "unprecedented and unanticipated" event. Forgive me while I clean up the puke. There is no indication if anyone asked the question why our national police force, which dealt with this man for years, found itself in "unanticipating" this event. I guess that would have been too embarrassing and we can't have that.

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